Leading Economic Indicator Predicts Fourth Quarter to End Strong
The partial shutdown of the federal government earlier this month reportedly didn’t take the steam out of the U.S. economy, according to the American Chemistry Council’s (ACC) monthly Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB). The CAB, a leading economic indicator, has been shown to lead U.S. business cycles by an average of eight months at cycle peaks, and four months at cycle troughs. The barometer increased 0.3% over September on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis, and remains up 3.1% over a year ago. It continues to be at its highest point since June 2008. Prior CAB readings for July through September were slightly revised.
“Despite the uncertainty being fueled by political gridlock in Washington, the fundamentals of our economy appear to be healthy,” said Kevin Swift, Ph.D., chief economist for the ACC. “This month’s Chemical Activity Barometer is up 0.3%, and this follows upticks in August and September as well.”