Groundhog as Economic Predictor?
Americans are familiar with the
tradition of Groundhog Day. Each year on February 2, a groundhog in Punxsutawney,
PA, known as Punxsutawney Phil comes up from his hole and, if he sees his
shadow, another six weeks of winter is predicted.
But did you know that Phil can also predict where the
economy is headed? It turns out, the rodent’s predictions correlate with how the Dow finished each year. For
the last 10 times he did not see his shadow, the Dow ended up nine times out of
10.
Unfortunately, he did see his shadow today – meaning six
more weeks of winter, and potentially no short term end to our economic woes.